About the Author

James C. Capretta

James C. Capretta

New Atlantis Contributing Editor James C. Capretta is an expert on health care and entitlement policy, with years of experience in both the executive and legislative branches of government. E-mail: jcapretta@aei.org.


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James C. Caprettas Latest New Atlantis Articles

 Health Care with a Conscience” (Fall 2008) 

 Health Care 2008: A Political Primer” (Spring 2008) 

 The Clipboard of the Future” (Winter 2008)

 

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Text Patterns - by Alan JacobsFuturisms - Critiquing the project to reengineer humanity

Thursday, October 3, 2013

CBOs Long-Term Budget Projections 

The Outlook Is Even Worse Than It Looks

Last month, the Congressional Budget Office released its annual update to its long-term budget projections, and as I explain in a post on the Health Affairs blog, the unsustainable debt and deficits forecasted by the CBO are due to the familiar causes of growing entitlement spending, especially in health care.

The cause of the soaring deficits and debt is familiar:  rapid increases in entitlement spending (on top of the five decade run-up that has already occurred), driven by the aging of the population, rapidly rising health care costs, and spending associated with expanded health entitlements under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA).  CBO expects that 54 percent of the federal spending increase on the major entitlements over the next twenty-five years will be attributable to the aging of the U.S. population.

Twenty-eight percent of the increase will be due to “excess cost growth” in health care – meaning cost escalation per capita in excess of GDP growth per capita.  The rest of the spending increase is due to the expansion of Medicaid and the new premium credits enacted in the PPACA.  When looking at just the health care entitlements, 40 percent of the federal spending increase is due to excess cost growth, 35 percent from population aging, and 26 percent from the PPACA program expansions.

You can read the rest of the post here.

posted by James C. Capretta | 12:41 pm
Tags: entitlements, debt, deficit
File As: Health Care